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Will Sara Duterte be legally barred from running for president in the May 2028 election?
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How this question is decided
- YES if, on election day (8 May 2028), Sara Duterte is legally barred from being a candidate for president in that election by any of: (a) a Senate impeachment judgment that convicts her and disqualifies her from holding office; (b) a final criminal conviction that carries disqualification from public office; (c) a final decision of COMELEC or the Supreme Court that disqualifies her as a presidential candidate or cancels or refuses her certificate of candidacy. If the election date changes, the new date counts.
- NO if no such bar is in force on election day. Deciding not to run, or withdrawing, is her own choice and resolves NO.
- The Constitution limits an impeachment judgment to removal from office and disqualification to hold any office (Article XI, Section 3(7)). If the Senate convicts her and the judgment does not state a disqualification, the question waits for a COMELEC or Supreme Court ruling on her candidacy.
- A ruling that a court reverses or stops before election day does not count. The editors may settle the question early once a bar is final and no court challenge to it is pending.
- Trading stops at 23:59 Philippine time on 7 May 2028, or earlier if a bar becomes final.
Sources
- 1987 Constitution, Article XI, Section 3(7): judgment limited to removal and disqualification
- RA 7166, Section 2: national elections on the second Monday of May
- Inquirer, 13 Aug 2026: COMELEC plans certificate-of-candidacy filing in the third week of September 2027
- SunStar, 13 Oct 2026: three articles withdrawn; Duterte restates her plan to run for president in 2028
- GMA News, 13 Oct 2026: court lets the prosecution drop Articles I, III and IV
- Rappler, 10 Feb 2025: lawyers differ on resignation, impeachment and disqualification
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- Buying YES raises the YES price; buying NO lowers it. The price after your trade is the readers' new forecast.
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- Prices use the logarithmic market scoring rule, the same pricing method many prediction markets use.
Free points only: no money in or out, no prizes. Every account starts with 1,000 points; points have no cash value and cannot be bought, sold or exchanged.