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Will the Senate convict Vice President Sara Duterte by 31 December 2026?
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โ๏ธ Trial dates, articles and sources โ
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How this question is decided
- YES if the Senate, sitting as the impeachment court, votes to convict Sara Duterte on at least one article of impeachment by 31 December 2026, 23:59 Philippine time, as announced by the presiding officer.
- NO if she is acquitted on every article, if the case is dismissed, withdrawn or ended without a conviction, or if there is no verdict by that time.
- Court rulings that change the trial (for example on the number of votes needed) count only through the Senate's final vote.
- Trading stops when the Senate starts voting on the verdict or at the deadline, whichever comes first.
Polymarket's question: conviction on any article passed by the House in May 2026, by 31 December 2026 (US Eastern time). Polymarket is an outside crypto prediction market; its price is shown for comparison only, refreshed every 30 minutes. We have no link with it.
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How it works
- Buying YES raises the YES price; buying NO lowers it. The price after your trade is the readers' new forecast.
- Each share pays 1 point if its side happens and nothing if it does not. You can sell shares back before trading closes.
- Prices use the logarithmic market scoring rule, the same pricing method many prediction markets use.
Free points only: no money in or out, no prizes. Every account starts with 1,000 points; points have no cash value and cannot be bought, sold or exchanged.